“经济学系列讲座”第十期

Knut Einar Rosendahl, a Ph.D in Economics from the University of Oslo, is Professor at the School of Economics and Business at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. He is former president of the Norwegian Association for Energy Economists, former deputy chairman of the Norwegian Association for Economists, former member of the Norwegian government’s Green Tax Commission, and currently Associate Editor of Resource and Energy Economics and member of the Editorial Board of Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. In 2008-9 he was a visiting scholar at Resources for the future (RFF) and Johns Hopkins University (SAIS). His research centres around environmental and energy economics, with special focus on climate policies, technology policies, and fossil fuel markets. He specializes within analytical methods and numerical modelling, and publishes in international journals including Energy Economics, Energy Journal, Environmental and Resource Economics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Regulatory Economics, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Resource and Energy Economics, and Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

报告简介

While the EU established its emission trading system (ETS) in 2005, China will establish a national ETS in 2017. In this joint paper with Christoph Bohringer, we numerically analyze and compare the effects of emissions trading in these two jurisdictions, focusing on four central ETS design elements: i) ambition level, ii) sector coverage, iii) allocation of allowances, and iv) access to offsets. For this purpose, we use a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, with the EU and China as separate regions. The analysis suggests that a Chinese ETS can potentially induce stronger emission reductions for a given emission price compared to the EU ETS, provided that the regulated electricity prices in China are adjusted to fully reflect the costs of CO2 emissions (as represented by the ETS price). Furthermore, expanding the ETS to more sectors will generate more emission reductions, but the additional abatement is rather moderate in both the EU and China. Output-based allocation (“benchmarking”) will induce less emission reductions than auctioning (for a given ETS price), but the differences are modest except in the case where the electricity sector in China is given free allowances in proportion to their output. Finally, accepting domestic offsets can lower the costs of reducing emissions in both China and the EU, especially if the ambition level is rather strong.